CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – May 30^th , 2023 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“Culture creation and change”

Soo Min Toh – University of Toronto Mississauga (joint work with Yeun Joon Kim and Sooyun Baik)

Abstract:

“This review presents comprehensive analyses of extant research on culture creation and change. We use the framework of culture creation and change ( Kim & Toh, 2019), which consists of three unique perspectives, to understand past research on the antecedents of cultures. The basis of the functionality perspective is that environmental changes shape cultures, and thus, the created cultures enable an organization to address the demands of its environments effectively. In contrast, the leadership perspective argues that leaders have disproportional influence on cultures, and when exercising such influence, they are often unsuccessful at creating functional cultures. The leadership perspective comprises two subperspectives—the leader-trait and cultural transfer perspectives. The leader-trait perspective argues that when creating cultures, leaders often overlook the functionality of cultures but rely heavily on their traits. The cultural transfer perspective suggests that leaders often recreate the cultures that they have experienced in the past. Building on this framework, we review 74 studies in 68 articles across multiple disciplines to widen our understanding of culture creation and change. We then present agendas for future research guided by a four-stage model and a theory of coordinated actions for creating functional cultures. Finally, we discuss methodological limitations in past studies and offer possible solutions.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – May 30^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Marriage, Divorce and Child Development”

Mónica Costa Dias  –  Cef.up, School of Economics, Bristol University and Institute for Fiscal Studies

Abstract:

“My research interests are in the fields of labour, family and public economics, and applied econometrics. I study how inequalities build over the course of life and are transmitted across generations, how policy interacts with the formation of inequalities and how it can be designed to ameliorate poverty and its long lasting impacts. In my work, I use applied economic theory and applied econometrics, which I often combine in structural models of economic behaviour, to gain a better understanding of individual choices, how they interact in markets and how they respond to economic incentives.

My research has been funded by, among others, the Economic and Social Research Council (UK) and the European Commission, and has been published in leading academic journals such as Econometrica, the Journal of Political Economy, Quantitative Economics, Journal of Labor Economics or the Journal of Human Resources.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – May 25^th, 2023 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Private Equity Debt Funds: Who Wins and Who Loses?”

Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes  – SKEMA Business School – Université Côte d’Azur, and NBER (joint work with Axel Buchner and Armin Schwienbacher)

Abstract:

“We exploit a unique data set to provide the first analysis of the structure, performance and gain distribution of deals financed by the same private equity firm on the equity and debt sides (related deals). Most related deals are carried out by a few large and experienced PE firms. In support of the conflict of interest hypothesis, we document a transfer of value from debt to equity funds in related transactions relative to unrelated transactions. Yet, the overall value impact of related deals (debt and equity combined) is positive and limited partners of PE-affiliated debt funds do not loose overall. Related deals generate sizable gains for PE firms, most likely through the better ex-post incentives of these deals.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – May 23^rd , 2023 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“The Power of New Digital Ads and Consumer Response”

Prabirendra Chatterjee – Cardiff Business School

In this seminar Professor Prabirendra Chatterjee will present his latest research on how hidden features of new digital ads, such as Instagram posts, help marketers attract new generation of consumers.

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – May 16^th , 2023 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“Forecasting and trading cryptocurrencies with machine learning under changing market conditions”

Pedro Godinho  –  University of Coimbra, School of Economics and researcher at CeBER – Center for Business and Economics Research (joint work with Hélder Sebastião)

Abstract:

“This study examines the predictability of three major cryptocurrencies—bitcoin, ethereum, and litecoin—and the profitability of trading strategies devised upon machine learning techniques (e.g., linear models, random forests, and support vector machines). The models are validated in a period characterized by unprecedented turmoil and tested in a period of bear markets, allowing the assessment of whether the predictions are good even when the market direction changes between the validation and test periods. The classification and regression methods use attributes from trading and network activity for the period from August 15, 2015 to March 03, 2019, with the test sample beginning on April 13, 2018. For the test period, five out of 18 individual models have success rates of less than 50%. The trading strategies are built on model assembling. The ensemble assuming that five models produce identical signals (Ensemble 5) achieves the best performance for ethereum and litecoin, with annualized Sharpe ratios of 80.17% and 91.35% and annualized returns (after proportional round-trip trading costs of 0.5%) of 9.62% and 5.73%, respectively. These positive results support the claim that machine learning provides robust techniques for exploring the predictability of cryptocurrencies and for devising profitable trading strategies in these markets, even under adverse market conditions.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Monday – May 15^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“What We Do in the Shadows: How Urban Density Facilitates Information Diffusion”

Evan Kresch– Oberlin College (joint work with Qing Zhang)

Abstract:

“Does urban density facilitate the diffusion of information? This paper exploits plausibly exogenous variation generated by a unique national policy in China that requires all residential buildings to receive sufficient hours of sunshine. The policy creates higher degrees of restriction on density at higher latitudes, where longer shadows require buildings to be further apart. Data on individual housing projects across China reveal that the cross-latitude variation in regulatory residential Floor Area Ratio can be described quite well by a formula linking structure density to latitude through the solar elevation angle. These differences in building density further induce differences in population density and land prices across latitudes. Using differential topic dynamics on a national petition platform to measure information diffusion, this paper shows that people respond to shifts in government attention with varying speeds across latitudes. Increases in local government reply rate to a topic raises the volume of subsequent posts on the same topic, exhibiting an S-shaped time trajectory consistent with local information diffusion about shifting government priorities. These responses are systematically faster in southern cities, where density is higher. Survey evidence further indicates that otherwise similar individuals are more likely to gossip about public issues in a southern city.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – May 4^th, 2023 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Macroeconomic Announcements and the News that Matters Most to Investors“

Rik Frehen  – Tilburg University (joint work with Samia Badidi and Martijn Boons)

Abstract:

“We study a large set of macroeconomic announcements (MAs), disentangle their news content, and estimate risk premia for each type of news in the cross-section of stocks. Our most interesting finding is that a portfolio that pays off around MAs that negatively impact the stock market commands a large and positive risk premium. Adding this portfolio to a position in the stock market substantially increases the Sharpe ratio, while reducing price impact exposure to MAs. We argue that this portfolio is risky, consistent with models of reinvestment risk. Our findings challenge equilibrium models predicting a negative relation between shocks to discount rates and marginal utility as well as stories of cash ow news arriving on MA days.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – May 2^nd , 2023 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“Masstige Model, Theory and Measure for brand management and marketing”

Justin Paul – Editor-in-chief of the International Journal of Consumer Studies and University of Puerto Rico, USA and the University of Reading, UK (joint work with A. Kumar and S. Starčević)

Abstract:

“The term ‘Masstige’ stands for mass prestige. Masstige marketing is a strategic phenomenon with the goal of market penetration and brand management in the era of globalisation. The main purpose of this paper is to contribute towards the development of the masstige marketing theory to explain the brand management phenomenon of high value/premium/moderately highly priced (but attainable) brands with a new theoretical model – focused on product, promotion and place strategies, keeping prices constant. Besides, we assess and contrast the effectiveness of marketing strategy of foreign and domestic car brands in the USA using Masstige Mean Index (MMI) developed by Paul (2015). This study is based on the survey data of owners of Japanese and American car brands. It was found that brands can create higher mass prestige value in a foreign country if they follow masstige marketing strategy. The study shows how MMI may facilitate masstige score estimates, allowing comparisons and aiding brands in devising strategies.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – April 20^th, 2023 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Political connections and shareholder support“

Anders Löflund  – Hanken School of Economics (joint work with Magnus Blomkvist, Eva Liljeblom and Etienne Redor)

Abstract:

“We study investors’ preferences for corporate political connections in the U.S. using a novel measure; shareholder votes given to individual directors. We find that, after fully accounting for all firm-year specific information and a wide range of director characteristics, that politically connected directors on average do not obtain significantly greater shareholder support. However, during the time-period 2010 to 2016 the board elections echo the nationwide political climate, as directors with ties to the Democratic party receive more shareholder votes. We also find that shareholders have a stronger preference for politically connected directors in heavily regulated industries, suggesting that board members closer to the incumbent government can alleviate regulatory risk. Our study has implications for director selection and the role of political connections in shaping corporate governance practices.”

CEF.UP – WiP Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – April 18^th, 2023 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“Public and Private School Grade Inflations Patterns in Secondary Education”

Pedro Luís Silva – FEP and Cef.up (joint work with Stephen L. DesJardins, Ricardo Biscaia, Carla Sá and Pedro N. Teixeira)

Abstract:

“Grade inflation in high schools is potentially problematic for students, education institutions, and society. We examine the extent of potential grading inflation in courses taken during high school and how such differences vary across student and school characteristics. Utilizing longitudinal, administrative data for the population of high school students in an entire country (Portugal) over ten years, we develop a measure of grade inflation using the position of the student’s high school grade relative to their score on the national standardized admission exam. We analyze differences in this measure across four types of high schools: TEIP schools (public schools located in disadvantaged areas that include children at-risk of social exclusion), public schools (state-funded schools), private schools, and private association schools (owned by private entities but publicly funded).
We find that private association schools exhibit a lower probability of grade inflation when compared to public schools. Additionally, TEIP schools tend to have a higher probability of inflation for students with high grades. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – April 13^th, 2023 at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Sustainability or Performance: Ratings and Fund Managers’ Incentives”

 Nickolay Gantchev  – Warwick Business School  (joint work with Mariassunta Giannetti and Rachel Li)

Abstract:

“We explore how mutual fund managers and investors react when the tradeoff between a fund’s sustainability and performance becomes salient. Following the introduction of Morningstar’s sustainability ratings (the “globe” ratings), mutual funds increased their holdings of sustainable stocks to attract flows. Such sustainability-driven trades, however, underperformed, impairing the funds’ overall performance. Consequently, a tradeoff between sustainability and performance emerged. In the new equilibrium, the globe ratings do not affect investor flows and funds no longer trade to improve their globe ratings.”

CEF.UP – MaR Webinar

Tuesday – April 11^th , 2023 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Online

“Sustainability accounting and transparency issues”

Muhammad Azizul Islam  – University of Aberdeen Business School

Abstract:

“Civil liberties enable the media, social movements, and other stakeholders to expect companies to be more transparent and forthcoming with relevant social and environmental information. Drawing on social movement theory in general, and the notion of civil liberty in particular, we analyse the availability of social and environmental information of 300 financial companies from 50 countries over a nine-year period, to investigate the influence of country-level civil liberties on the availability of social and environmental information.
We find that companies headquartered in countries with high levels of civil liberties make more social and environmental information publicly available than companies headquartered in countries with low levels of civil liberties. Furthermore, an improvement in civil liberties in countries with lower civil liberties has a bigger impact on changes in the availability of social and environmental information.
Our research is relevant for the ongoing concerns of social and environmental transparency initiatives by governments, NGOs, and civil rights organisations. Policy implications for countries with lower civil liberties (typical developing nations) are that if they wish to encourage more transparent corporate information, they need to strengthen their country-level civil liberties.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – April 11^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Can the keyboard beat the good old pen? The effect of computer-based testing on students’ performance”

João Pereira dos Santos – ISEG (joint work with Ana Ruis and Luís Catela)

Abstract:

“Computer-based testing is being increasingly adopted by several education institutions worldwide. Whether this transition from paper-based testing yields different impacts on students’ performance is still an open question. This paper aims to assess the impact of computer-based testing exploiting a large-scale pilot-program deployed in 2022 low-stake exams in Portugal. We rely on rich crosssectional student-level data to implement pooled OLS and difference in differences approaches. Results indicate statistically significant differences in students’ score between computer-based and paper-based testing with differences ranging from -5pp to -24pp. Finally, we discuss important heterogeneity effects and implications of implementing this policy at scale.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – March 28^th , 2023 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“Risk-conscious optimisation models”

Celma de Oliveira Ribeiro –  Escola Politécnica da Universidade de S. Paulo

This seminar will focus on Prof Ribeiro’s latest research on risk-conscious optimisation models to support bioenergy investments in the Brazilian sugarcane industry.

CEF.UP – ECO- MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – March 28^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The logics of non-commerciality in the cinematic ecosystem”

Christopher Mathieu – Lund University

Abstract:

“Film is one of the most expensive and commercially oriented art forms. It is estimated that the average cost of producing a Hollywood (American major studio) feature film is USD 65-75m, with approximately half as much again (about USD 35m) spent on marketing (Studiobinder 2013). The sums are high, and the ratio of marketing budget to production cost is indicative of a high commercial interest and effort. The sums are lower for non-Hollywood films, but the commercial orientation is in most cases similar. However, non-commercial films (defined here as film projects and products that neither have an intention or demand to generate profit or even recoup financial investment) and logics of non-commerciality exist and play various roles in the wider cinematic ecosystem. Several distinct non-commercial subsystems exist within the wider cinematic ecosystem. Some have virtually no interaction with the dominant commercial systems, often meeting other contemporary societal goals (Miller 2016; Kerr 1993), while others play direct and specific roles for the commercial mainstream (Fox 2022; Brown 2014; Cuzner 2009). Focusing on live-action fiction as opposed to documentary or animation film, and production as opposed to non-commercial exhibition (Santos & Miranda 2022) this article maps: the various logics behind non-commercial filmmaking; the various values realised by non-commercial film in different contexts; past, current, and potential future relationships with the commercial domain; and the managerial challenges and possibilities afforded by non-commercial film production.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – March 21^st , 2023 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“The stereotype of accountants”

Delfina Gomes –  Universidade do Minho

This seminar will focus on the findings of two papers:

Leão, F., Gomes, D., & Carnegie, G. (2019). The portrayal of early accountants in nineteenth-century Portuguese literature. Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, 32(2), 658-688.

Leão, F., & Gomes, D. (2022). The stereotype of accountants: Using a personality approach to assess the perspectives of laypeople. Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, 35(9), 234-271. .

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – March 9^th, 2023 at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Corporate Taxation and Carbon Emissions“

Julien Sauvagnat – Bocconi University (joint work with Luigi Iovino and Thorsten Martin)

Abstract:

“We study the relationship between corporate taxation and carbon emissions in the U.S. We show that dirty firms pay lower profit taxes. This relationship is driven by dirty firms benefiting disproportionately more from the tax shield of debt due to their higher leverage. In addition, we document that the higher leverage of dirty firms is fully accounted for by the larger share of tangible assets owned by such firms. We build a general-equilibrium multi-sector economy and show that a revenue-neutral increase in profit taxation could lead to large decreases in aggregate carbon emissions without any noticeable change in GDP.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – March 7^th , 2023 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“Marginalised Groups in Business”

David Guttormsen –  School of Business, University of South-Eastern Norway

Abstract:

“The paper addresses an understudied but highly relevant group of people within corporate organizations and society in general—the marginalized—as well as their narration, and criticism, of personal lived experiences of marginalization in business. They are conventionally perceived to lack traditional forms of power such as public influence, formal authority, education, money, and political positions; however, they still possess the resources to impact their situations, their circumstances, and the structures that determine their situations. Business ethics researchers seldom consider marginalized people’s voices and experiences as resources to understand their lives, as demonstrated through a review of 7500 articles published in the Journal of Business Ethics and Business Ethics Quarterly (2000–2019). Only 78 studies included aspects of marginalized groups. 69 of those studies discussed the topic of marginalized groups of people, but without integrating their explicit voices into the text. Only 9 of the 78 articles featured marginalized people’s explicit voices about their marginalization experiences incorporated into the text as a source for exploration. None of the identified studies discussed the potential for theorizing based on such voices. This paper contributes to business ethics theory by developing four theoretical possibilities vis-à-vis the critical voices of marginalized people’s experiences in business: (a) marginalized theory on critical agency and freedom of speech; (b) the gatekeeping role of academia; (c) primary sources; and (d) a participative perspective. Discussing the theoretical potential of quoting the above voices can enrich business ethics research in terms of the theoretical understanding of marginalized groups in business.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – March 7^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Robots at work: new evidence with recent data”

Derick Almeida – Universidade de Coimbra (joint work with Tiago Sequeira)

Abstract:

“We reassess the relationship between robotization and the growth in labor productivity in the light of more recent data. We discover that the effect of robot density in the growth productivity substantially decreased in the post-2008 crisis period. In this more recent period, the less strong positive effect of robot density in the growth of productivity depends less on the increase in the value added due to robotization. The data analysis dismisses any positive effect of robotization on hours worked. Results are confirmed by several robustness checks, cross-sectional IV and quantile regression analysis and through panel data quantile and IV analysis. By means of the quantile regression analysis, we learn that the effect of robots on labor productivity is stronger for low productivity sectors and that in the most recent period, the effect of robotization felt significantly throughout the distribution. This highlights one of the possible sources of the secular stagnation in the era of robotization and artificial intelligence technologies.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – February 28^th , 2023 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“Challenges of managerial responsibility and ethics for Central and East European countries based on the experience from the Czech Republic”

Dušan Kučera –  Prague University of Economics and Business

Abstract:

“The study aims to identify the typical key factors of ethical thinking and behaviour in Central and East European (CEE) countries, and regard them from the experience of privatization and transformation process in the Czech Republic. The background of ethical scandals and dilemmas of CEE countries reflects their roots in socialist education and state-planned economy, which are based on Marxism, which had and has serious consequences. The study describes the main philosophical reasons affecting the managerial limits in the ethical context of business and management behaviour after the transformation period with the apparent challenges in management thinking and executive education for today. The following description and interpretation of the fundamental implications of the presented analysis for managerial responsibility and ethics are discussed with the relevant professional literature that illuminates the personal, social and economic long-term consequences. Cross-country comparisons reflect developments in the European Union, the Amnesty International Corruption Index and other specific influences according to regional sources. Resulting challenges relate to challenges of business and management philosophy in business schools. The conclusion shows the space for the following professional discussion with European partners and PRME signatories regarding the ethical challenges for executive education and sustainability management in CEE. Recent academic publications show that managerial responsibility and ethical behaviour are increasingly in the focus of interest of both academics and company management.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – February 24^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The Spatial Dimension of Import Competition”

Joakim Gullstrand – Lund University (joint work with Polina Knutsson)

Abstract:

“Exposure to international competition on a country level has been shown to improve the efficiency of domestic producers. We contribute to this literature by studying whether the distance between producers and importers within a country matters for import competition effects at the product level. Using highly detailed geographical information about the location of Swedish manufacturing firms over 2005–2014, we find robust evidence of an increased efficiency in the domestic production when imports rise, but that the effect declines with the distance between the producer and the importer. In addition to the importance of the geographical pattern within a country, we find that the average effect of import competition conceals large variations across firms and products. Highly productive firms respond to import competition by further improving efficiency, which, in turn, translates into both a lower price and a higher markup. Firms are also more likely to drop fringe products while keeping core ones. Products undercut by low import prices within their close proximity respond by lowering prices only, although highly efficient products resist this by a more pronounced improvement in the marginal cost, which, in turn, translates into both a lower price and a higher markup.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – February 14^th , 2023 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“Diversity and inclusion branding: a five-country comparison of corporate websites”

Sébastien Point – EM Strasbourg Business School (joint work with Karsten Jonsen, Elisabeth K. Kelan and Adrian Grieble)

Abstract:

“In their quest to attract talent and appear as an employer of choice, organizations must articulate the benefits of having a diverse and inclusive workforce. By communicating the attractiveness of the workplace, a company increases its exposure to the environment as an employer of choice. Within the context of employer branding, we highlight two emerging concepts that encompass corporate communication in the form of diversity and inclusion statements: diversity branding and inclusion branding. We examine the websites of 75 major companies in five different countries (France, Germany, Spain, the UK and the US). The article highlights that organizations use diversity and inclusion branding to attract talent, become employers of choice and dimensionalize diversity to signal that specific dimensions of diversity are relevant to the organization. We show that diversity and inclusion branding has become ‘mainstream’ and how a focus on diversity is particularly useful to attract talent while to appear as an employer of choice a focus on inclusion seems particularly beneficial.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – February 9^th, 2023 at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Incomplete supervisory cooperation“

Wolf Wagner – Rotterdam School of Management and CEPR (joint work with Thorsten Beck and Consuelo Silva-Buston)

Abstract:

“Banking supervisors frequently cooperate across countries, but cooperation only imperfectly covers the global operations of large banking groups. We show that this causes significant third-country externalities. Using hand-collected supervisory cooperation data, we document that banking groups shift lending activities and risk into third-country subsidiaries when cooperation agreements cover their operations in other countries. The implied country-level increase in the share of foreign loans is 16%. We also show that countries do not internalize third-country effects when making cooperation decisions, resulting in a 26 percentage point higher propensity to cooperate. Overall, our results highlight a need for “cooperating on cooperation.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – February 3^rd, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Gambling to Preserve Price (and Fiscal) Stability”

Bartosz Maćkowiak – European Central Bank and CEPR (joint work with Giancarlo Corsetti)

Abstract:

“We study a model in which policy aims at aggregate price stability. A fiscal imbalance materializes that, if uncorrected, must cause inflation, but the imbalance may get corrected in the future with some probability. By maintaining price stability in the near term, monetary policy can buy time for a correction to take place. The policy gamble may succeed, with price stability preserved indefinitely, or fail, leading to a delayed, possibly large jump in the price level. The resulting dynamics resemble the models of a currency crisis following Krugman (1979) and Obstfeld (1986). Like in Obstfeld’s work, multiple equilibria arise naturally: whether or not price stability is preserved may depend on private agents’ expectations. The model can be reinterpreted as a model of partial default on public debt, in which case it is reminiscent of Calvo (1988).”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – January 27^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The Japanese Textile Sector and the Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1920”

Ilan Noy – Victoria University of Wellington (joint work with Toshihiro Okubo and Eric Ströbl)

Abstract:

“The ongoing global pandemic has brought into sharp relief the possible interactions between the epidemiology of a virus, the structure of the economy and society that becomes exposed to it, and the actions chosen by government, individuals, and communities to combat it or ameliorate its economic impact. Surprisingly, there has not been sufficient research on these economic and policy interactions of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic – the deadliest pandemic of the 20th century. The focus of much of the research has been on the pandemic’s mortality and other demographic impacts. This paper focuses on Japan, which as a minor participant, was not directly affected by World War I. We exploit the diversity of experiences with the pandemic and its attendant policy responses across Japanese prefectures; and investigate the importance of the pandemic’s toll (measured by excess mortality), and of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs), in determining the pandemic’s economic impact. We do so by focusing on the production and employment in the textile sector, given the availability of data and the general importance of the textile sector for emerging economies (as Japan was at the time). We investigate the role of NPIs in ameliorating the economic costs for the sector during the pandemic years (1918-1920), and indeed find that the implemented NPIs were effective in ameliorating the pandemic’s economic consequences, rather than worsening them. In this case, there was no trade-off between money and life, but rather the two were complimentary.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – December 15^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy”

Giovanni Ricco – University of Warwick

Abstract:

“The US monetary policy propagates internationally by affecting external demand and due to the role of the dollar as the world’s dominant currency in financial markets, trade invoicing, and foreign exchange reserves. We quantify spillover effects by employing a state-of-the-art high-frequency identification and big data techniques, in conjunction with a harmonised dataset covering 30 economies and over 150,000 data-points. We report three novel stylised facts. First, a US monetary policy tightening has large and qualitatively homogeneous real and nominal contractionary spillovers onto both advanced and emerging economies. Second, flexible exchange rates cannot fully insulate domestic economies. Movements in risk premia limit central banks’ ability to control the yield curve, even in advanced economies. Third, financial channels dominate over demand and exchange rate channels in the transmission to real variables, while the transmission via oil and commodity prices determines nominal spillovers. The latter is an important novel channel not previously reported in the literature. ”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – December 13^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“An Experiment on Gender Representation in Majoritarian Bargaining”

 Diogo Geraldes – University College Dublin – School of Economics

Abstract:

“Women are underrepresented in political and business decision-making bodies across the world. To investigate the causal effect of gender representation on multilateral negotiations, we experimentally manipulate the composition of triads in a majoritarian, divide-the-dollar game. First, we find that inclusive splits and unanimous agreement rates are highest in all-female groups and lowest in all-male groups suggesting that female representation increases fairness. Second, we document a robust gender gap in earnings, driven largely by the exclusion of women from coalitions rather than differential shares within coalitions. Experiments with different subject pools show that distinct bargaining dynamics can underlie the same inequitable outcomes: While gender-biased outcomes are sometimes caused by outright discrimination, they can also be driven by more complex dynamics related to gender differences in bargaining strategies. These different dynamics manifest in mixed-gender coalitions being less stable when the excluded party is male rather than female. Men are more likely to make opening offers and enjoy a payoff advantage for doing so, but women suffer backlash for proposing first.”

Brief Bio

Diogo Geraldes is a Senior Assistant Professor at the University College Dublin – School of Economics since August 2022. Diogo’s main research interests lie in the fields of Behavioral Economics, Experimental Economics, and Game Theory. Before arriving in beautiful Dublin, Diogo’s academic path navigated through Lisboa (Nova University), Barcelona (Pompeu Fabra University), New York (Columbia University), Maastricht University, and Utrecht University.

Additionally, Diogo is a Research Fellow of the Geary Institute for Public Policy and a Member of the UCD Behavioral Science & Policy Group. And also a Researcher at the Science of Diversity & Inclusion Initiative (University of Chicago).

CEF.UP – WiP Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – December 6^th, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“Firm Investment and Liquidity: Evidence from a Natural Disaster”

José Jorge – FEP and Cef.up (joint work with Sujiao Zhao)

Abstract:

“Natural disasters dramatically affect firms, but they also provide for an opportunity to start anew. We exploit information on the 15-16 October 2017 Portuguese wildfires and the ensuing official assistance that subsidized 85% of the losses, applying a differences-in-differences approach. Firms affected by the wildfires increase output and fixed assets, with employment and productivity remaining stable. Their book value of fixed assets increases substantially more than their economic value. Affected firms activate their existing credit lines, borrow long term credit, and increase cash holdings. The evidence is consistent with the theory that firms invest both in scale and in liquidity.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – November 29^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Spectral decomposition of the information about latent variables in dynamic macroeconomic models”

 Nikolay Iskrev – Banco de Portugal

Abstract:

“In this paper, I show how to perform spectral decomposition of the information about latent variables in dynamic economic models. A model describes the joint probability distribution of a set of observed and latent variables. The amount of information transferred from the former to the latter is measured by the reduction of uncertainty in the posterior compared to the prior distribution of any given latent variable. Casting the analysis in the frequency domain allows decomposing the total amount of information in terms of frequency-specific contributions as well as in terms of information contributed by individual observed variables. I illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology with applications to two DSGE models taken from the literature.”

CEF.UP – WiP Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – November 22^nd, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“Universal Basic Income: The Worst Bar All Others?”

Luís Guimarães – Cef.up (joint work with Diogo Lourenço)

Abstract:

“Extant welfare programmes introduce unintended distortions and suffer from low take-up, transfers to ineligible recipients, and administrative costs. A noteworthy alternative, arguably immune to these imperfections, is a Universal Basic Income (UBI), i.e., an unconditional transfer to all citizens. Yet, UBI is a blunt instrument that does not discriminate rich from poor and is useless for incentivizing work or further education. The welfare and other macroeconomic impacts of replacing means-tested welfare programmes with a UBI are therefore far from obvious. To elucidate them, we build a dynamic general-equilibrium model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents. We find that replacing a suite of means-tested US programmes with an expenditure neutral UBI would increase the stock of capital, employment, and output, but lower welfare. Further experiments, however, also indicate that if the magnitude of current transfers increased substantially, an expenditure neutral UBI would be welfare-improving.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – November 17^th, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Committing to Grow: Privatizations and Firm Dynamics in East Germany”

Nicolas Serrano-Velarde – Bocconi University (joint work U. Akcigit, H. Alp and A. Diegmann)

Abstract:

“We study the implications of employment targets on firm dynamics during the privatization of the East German economy. Exploiting novel contract-level data, we document three stylized facts. First, the policy distorted firm size choices and generated bunching of firms around their committed employment target. Second, exploiting heterogeneous labor preferences of privatizers, we show that assigning tight commitments to firms causes an increase in employment growth and leads to higher productivity growth. Finally, tighter commitments also result in significant costs by leading to increased firm exit. We interpret these results through the lens of a dynamic model with endogenous productivity growth at the firm level. The model highlights that while tight commitments distort the employment decision statically and lead to a higher exit probability, they also induce a “catch-up” increase in productivity growth. This is because although firm profits are lower under tight commitments, marginal profits with respect to productivity are higher. We calibrate the model to our data and find that the policy lead to a 3 percentage points higher aggregate TFP growth thanks to the productivity improvements of firms with tight contracts.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – October 25^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Firm Heterogeneity, Market Power and Macroeconomic Fragility”

 Francisco Queirós – Università Federico II

Abstract:

“We study how firm heterogeneity and market power affect macroeconomic fragility, defined as the probability of long-lasting recessions. We propose a theory in which the positive interaction between firm entry, competition and factor supply can give rise to multiple steady-states. We show that when firm heterogeneity is large, even small temporary shocks can trigger firm exit and make the economy spiral in a competition-driven poverty trap. Calibrating our model to incorporate the well-documented trends in increasing firm heterogeneity in the US economy, we find that, relative to 2007, an economy with the 1990 level of firm heterogeneity is 1.5 to 2 times less likely to experience a deep recession.We use our framework to study the 2008–09 recession and show that the model can rationalize the persistent deviation of output and most macroeconomic aggregates from trend, including the behavior of net entry, markups and the labor share. Post-crisis cross-industry data corroborates our proposed mechanism. We conclude by showing that firm subsidies can be powerful in preventing quasi-permanent recessions and can lead to up to a 21% increase in welfare.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – October 13^th, 2022 at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“The Innovation Arms’ Race” – access the paper here

Farooq Ahmad – SKEMA Business School (joint work with Eric de Bodt and Jarrad Harford)

Abstract:

“Economists have long recognized that competition and innovation interact as key drivers of economic growth (Schumpeter, 1943; Arrow, 1962; Aghion and Howitt, 1992). Acknowledging this, regulators carefully scrutinize competitive behaviors that potentially affect innovation incentives, in particular in the field of M&A (Shapiro, 2012). Do acquisitions of innovative targets spur or stifle innovation? To address this question, we test the Innovation Arms Race hypothesis, providing a first large scale empirical investigation of M&A effects on acquirer rivals’ incentives to innovate and the equilibrium outcome resulting from this competitive process. Our results are consistent with the Innovation Arms Race hypothesis predictions: acquisitions of innovative targets push acquirer rivals to invest more in innovation, both internally through research and development (R&D) and externally through acquisition of innovative targets (the correlated investment prediction) and this increase in innovation investment under pressure of rivals leads to a decrease in firm market valuation (the value decrease prediction). These results are robust to endogeneity and are driven by High-Technology and (to some extent) Healthcare industries. This arms race process appears stronger for leaders and (to some extent) firms under strong competitive pressure (so-called neck-and-neck firms). Initial patents and patent citations based evidence shows no sign of innovation investment efficiency decline, suggesting that the Innovation Arms Race generates a transfer of economic rent favorable to consumers.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – October 11^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“The current energy crisis in historical perspective”

 Astrid Kander – Lund University

Abstract:

“The energy crisis of 2022 has several similarities to the oil crises of the 1970s, but there are also differences. This paper takes a very long perspective on the situation where EU tries to free itself from fossil fuels to save the climate, and at the same time urgently stand united in the energy war that Putin has inflicted on especially Germany, but indirectly all of EU, by stopping the gas deliveries via Nord stream 1. We will discuss historical and contemporary limitations of areal energy resources, as well as the inflation and interest increases, which will possibly lead to stagflation (like in the 1970s), and the impact on energy markets as well as stock exchange markets. Last we will briefly touch upon whether this  energy crisis will make move EU faster in achieving its climate ambitions or the contrary.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – September 27^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Firm Dynamics and Sectoral Reallocation with Hugo Hopenhayn and Rish Singhania”

 Julian Neira – University of Exeter, UK

Abstract:

This paper presents a tractable framework to jointly study patterns of sectoral reallocation and firm dynamics. The framework features input-output linkages across sectors, heterogeneous rates of firm creation and destruction, and common factor markets. We characterize the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium. We present applications to sectoral reallocations in US data.

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – September 16^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Public housing development and segregation: SRU law in France”

Guillaume Chapelle  – THEMA, CY Cergy Paris Université,  France

Abstract:

We study the effects of the SRU law introduced in France in December 2000 to support scattered development of public housing in cities and favor social mixity. This law imposes 20% of public housing to all medium and large municipalities of large-enough cities, with fees for those not abiding by the law. Using exhaustive fiscal data, we evaluate the effects of the law over the 1996-2008 period using a difference-in-differences approach at the municipality level. We find that the law stimulated public housing construction in treated municipalities with a low proportion of public dwellings. Within these municipalities, it decreased public housing segregation but it did not decrease much low-income segregation. We investigate their intra-municipal dynamics by running block-level regressions that include municipality fixed effects. Within these treated municipalities, the concentration of public dwellings increased to a larger extent in blocks with below-average income and below-average concentration of public dwellings.

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – July 12^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Social Distancing and Risk Taking: Evidence from a Team Game Show”

José de Sousa  – Université Paris-Saclay (joint work with Jean-Marc Bourgeon and Alexis Noir-Luhalwe)

Abstract:

“We examine the risky choices of pairs of contestants in a popular radio game show in France. At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the show, traditionally held in person, had to switch to all remote. We find that this exogenous change in social context affects risk-taking behavior. Remotely, pairs take far fewer risks when the stakes are high than in the flesh. This behavioral difference is consistent with prosocial behavior theories, which argue that the nature of social interactions influences risky choices. Our results suggest that working from home may reduce participation in profitable but risky team projects.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – June 7^th , 2022 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“Exploring the boundaries of open innovation: Evidence from social media mining”

José Ramón Saura – Univ. Rey Juan Carlos, Spain (joint work with Daniel Palacios-Marqués and Domingo Ribeiro-Soriano)

Area: Mkt & Strat