CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – November 17^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The cost-vs.-quality tradeoff in make-or-buy decisions”

Frederik Andersson  –  Lund University

Abstract:

“The make-or-buy decision is analyzed in a simple two-task principal-agent model. There is a cost-saving-vs.-quality trade-off in effort provision, both effort and outcome having these two dimensions. The principal faces a dichotomous choice between make/in-house, coming with weak cost-saving incentives for the agent, and buy/outsourcing, coming with strong incentives; the dichotomy is due to an incomplete-contracting limitation necessitating that one party be residual claimant of cost-savings. Choosing buy rather than make leads to higher cost-saving effort and in a plausible main case to lower effort directed towards quality and lower equilibrium quality, this in spite of stronger direct quality-provision incentives. The attractiveness of make-vs.-buy is explored and shown to be aligned with its impact on quality.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – October 24^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Communication through biased intermediators”

Francisco Silva  –  Department of Economics, Deakin University

Abstract:

“We study biased intermediated communication between a sender and a receiver. We prove that the information that can be transmitted from the sender to the receiver is exactly the same as with direct (non-mediated) communication, provided there are (at least) two intermediators who do not communicate with each other. In that sense, the sender is not harmed by not being able to communicate with the receiver directly. This is the case even if the sender does not know the agents’ biases and regardless of the rules of communication (cheap talk, bayesian persuasion, etc.). We discuss the implications of our results to a related information design problem, where a decision maker designs the statistical experiment to be performed by a possibly biased agent. We show that, if the decision maker is able to manipulate the data without causing any statistical loss, she can implement her preferred statistical experiment despite the agent being biased. If, however, manipulating the data has a statistical cost, then strategies that reduce the overall informativeness of the experiment (like reducing the sample) might actually be (second-best) optimal for the decision maker, because they may require less costly manipulation in order to dissuade biased agents from misreporting. We discuss these ideas in the context of medical research.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – May 30^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Marriage, Divorce and Child Development”

Mónica Costa Dias  –  Cef.up, School of Economics, Bristol University and Institute for Fiscal Studies

Abstract:

“My research interests are in the fields of labour, family and public economics, and applied econometrics. I study how inequalities build over the course of life and are transmitted across generations, how policy interacts with the formation of inequalities and how it can be designed to ameliorate poverty and its long lasting impacts. In my work, I use applied economic theory and applied econometrics, which I often combine in structural models of economic behaviour, to gain a better understanding of individual choices, how they interact in markets and how they respond to economic incentives.

My research has been funded by, among others, the Economic and Social Research Council (UK) and the European Commission, and has been published in leading academic journals such as Econometrica, the Journal of Political Economy, Quantitative Economics, Journal of Labor Economics or the Journal of Human Resources.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Monday – May 15^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“What We Do in the Shadows: How Urban Density Facilitates Information Diffusion”

Evan Kresch– Oberlin College (joint work with Qing Zhang)

Abstract:

“Does urban density facilitate the diffusion of information? This paper exploits plausibly exogenous variation generated by a unique national policy in China that requires all residential buildings to receive sufficient hours of sunshine. The policy creates higher degrees of restriction on density at higher latitudes, where longer shadows require buildings to be further apart. Data on individual housing projects across China reveal that the cross-latitude variation in regulatory residential Floor Area Ratio can be described quite well by a formula linking structure density to latitude through the solar elevation angle. These differences in building density further induce differences in population density and land prices across latitudes. Using differential topic dynamics on a national petition platform to measure information diffusion, this paper shows that people respond to shifts in government attention with varying speeds across latitudes. Increases in local government reply rate to a topic raises the volume of subsequent posts on the same topic, exhibiting an S-shaped time trajectory consistent with local information diffusion about shifting government priorities. These responses are systematically faster in southern cities, where density is higher. Survey evidence further indicates that otherwise similar individuals are more likely to gossip about public issues in a southern city.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – April 11^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Can the keyboard beat the good old pen? The effect of computer-based testing on students’ performance”

João Pereira dos Santos – ISEG (joint work with Ana Ruis and Luís Catela)

Abstract:

“Computer-based testing is being increasingly adopted by several education institutions worldwide. Whether this transition from paper-based testing yields different impacts on students’ performance is still an open question. This paper aims to assess the impact of computer-based testing exploiting a large-scale pilot-program deployed in 2022 low-stake exams in Portugal. We rely on rich crosssectional student-level data to implement pooled OLS and difference in differences approaches. Results indicate statistically significant differences in students’ score between computer-based and paper-based testing with differences ranging from -5pp to -24pp. Finally, we discuss important heterogeneity effects and implications of implementing this policy at scale.”

CEF.UP – ECO- MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – March 28^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The logics of non-commerciality in the cinematic ecosystem”

Christopher Mathieu – Lund University

Abstract:

“Film is one of the most expensive and commercially oriented art forms. It is estimated that the average cost of producing a Hollywood (American major studio) feature film is USD 65-75m, with approximately half as much again (about USD 35m) spent on marketing (Studiobinder 2013). The sums are high, and the ratio of marketing budget to production cost is indicative of a high commercial interest and effort. The sums are lower for non-Hollywood films, but the commercial orientation is in most cases similar. However, non-commercial films (defined here as film projects and products that neither have an intention or demand to generate profit or even recoup financial investment) and logics of non-commerciality exist and play various roles in the wider cinematic ecosystem. Several distinct non-commercial subsystems exist within the wider cinematic ecosystem. Some have virtually no interaction with the dominant commercial systems, often meeting other contemporary societal goals (Miller 2016; Kerr 1993), while others play direct and specific roles for the commercial mainstream (Fox 2022; Brown 2014; Cuzner 2009). Focusing on live-action fiction as opposed to documentary or animation film, and production as opposed to non-commercial exhibition (Santos & Miranda 2022) this article maps: the various logics behind non-commercial filmmaking; the various values realised by non-commercial film in different contexts; past, current, and potential future relationships with the commercial domain; and the managerial challenges and possibilities afforded by non-commercial film production.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – March 7^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Robots at work: new evidence with recent data”

Derick Almeida – Universidade de Coimbra (joint work with Tiago Sequeira)

Abstract:

“We reassess the relationship between robotization and the growth in labor productivity in the light of more recent data. We discover that the effect of robot density in the growth productivity substantially decreased in the post-2008 crisis period. In this more recent period, the less strong positive effect of robot density in the growth of productivity depends less on the increase in the value added due to robotization. The data analysis dismisses any positive effect of robotization on hours worked. Results are confirmed by several robustness checks, cross-sectional IV and quantile regression analysis and through panel data quantile and IV analysis. By means of the quantile regression analysis, we learn that the effect of robots on labor productivity is stronger for low productivity sectors and that in the most recent period, the effect of robotization felt significantly throughout the distribution. This highlights one of the possible sources of the secular stagnation in the era of robotization and artificial intelligence technologies.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – February 24^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The Spatial Dimension of Import Competition”

Joakim Gullstrand – Lund University (joint work with Polina Knutsson)

Abstract:

“Exposure to international competition on a country level has been shown to improve the efficiency of domestic producers. We contribute to this literature by studying whether the distance between producers and importers within a country matters for import competition effects at the product level. Using highly detailed geographical information about the location of Swedish manufacturing firms over 2005–2014, we find robust evidence of an increased efficiency in the domestic production when imports rise, but that the effect declines with the distance between the producer and the importer. In addition to the importance of the geographical pattern within a country, we find that the average effect of import competition conceals large variations across firms and products. Highly productive firms respond to import competition by further improving efficiency, which, in turn, translates into both a lower price and a higher markup. Firms are also more likely to drop fringe products while keeping core ones. Products undercut by low import prices within their close proximity respond by lowering prices only, although highly efficient products resist this by a more pronounced improvement in the marginal cost, which, in turn, translates into both a lower price and a higher markup.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – February 3^rd, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Gambling to Preserve Price (and Fiscal) Stability”

Bartosz Maćkowiak – European Central Bank and CEPR (joint work with Giancarlo Corsetti)

Abstract:

“We study a model in which policy aims at aggregate price stability. A fiscal imbalance materializes that, if uncorrected, must cause inflation, but the imbalance may get corrected in the future with some probability. By maintaining price stability in the near term, monetary policy can buy time for a correction to take place. The policy gamble may succeed, with price stability preserved indefinitely, or fail, leading to a delayed, possibly large jump in the price level. The resulting dynamics resemble the models of a currency crisis following Krugman (1979) and Obstfeld (1986). Like in Obstfeld’s work, multiple equilibria arise naturally: whether or not price stability is preserved may depend on private agents’ expectations. The model can be reinterpreted as a model of partial default on public debt, in which case it is reminiscent of Calvo (1988).”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – January 27^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The Japanese Textile Sector and the Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1920”

Ilan Noy – Victoria University of Wellington (joint work with Toshihiro Okubo and Eric Ströbl)

Abstract:

“The ongoing global pandemic has brought into sharp relief the possible interactions between the epidemiology of a virus, the structure of the economy and society that becomes exposed to it, and the actions chosen by government, individuals, and communities to combat it or ameliorate its economic impact. Surprisingly, there has not been sufficient research on these economic and policy interactions of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic – the deadliest pandemic of the 20th century. The focus of much of the research has been on the pandemic’s mortality and other demographic impacts. This paper focuses on Japan, which as a minor participant, was not directly affected by World War I. We exploit the diversity of experiences with the pandemic and its attendant policy responses across Japanese prefectures; and investigate the importance of the pandemic’s toll (measured by excess mortality), and of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs), in determining the pandemic’s economic impact. We do so by focusing on the production and employment in the textile sector, given the availability of data and the general importance of the textile sector for emerging economies (as Japan was at the time). We investigate the role of NPIs in ameliorating the economic costs for the sector during the pandemic years (1918-1920), and indeed find that the implemented NPIs were effective in ameliorating the pandemic’s economic consequences, rather than worsening them. In this case, there was no trade-off between money and life, but rather the two were complimentary.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – December 15^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy”

Giovanni Ricco – University of Warwick

Abstract:

“The US monetary policy propagates internationally by affecting external demand and due to the role of the dollar as the world’s dominant currency in financial markets, trade invoicing, and foreign exchange reserves. We quantify spillover effects by employing a state-of-the-art high-frequency identification and big data techniques, in conjunction with a harmonised dataset covering 30 economies and over 150,000 data-points. We report three novel stylised facts. First, a US monetary policy tightening has large and qualitatively homogeneous real and nominal contractionary spillovers onto both advanced and emerging economies. Second, flexible exchange rates cannot fully insulate domestic economies. Movements in risk premia limit central banks’ ability to control the yield curve, even in advanced economies. Third, financial channels dominate over demand and exchange rate channels in the transmission to real variables, while the transmission via oil and commodity prices determines nominal spillovers. The latter is an important novel channel not previously reported in the literature. ”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – December 13^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“An Experiment on Gender Representation in Majoritarian Bargaining”

 Diogo Geraldes – University College Dublin – School of Economics

Abstract:

“Women are underrepresented in political and business decision-making bodies across the world. To investigate the causal effect of gender representation on multilateral negotiations, we experimentally manipulate the composition of triads in a majoritarian, divide-the-dollar game. First, we find that inclusive splits and unanimous agreement rates are highest in all-female groups and lowest in all-male groups suggesting that female representation increases fairness. Second, we document a robust gender gap in earnings, driven largely by the exclusion of women from coalitions rather than differential shares within coalitions. Experiments with different subject pools show that distinct bargaining dynamics can underlie the same inequitable outcomes: While gender-biased outcomes are sometimes caused by outright discrimination, they can also be driven by more complex dynamics related to gender differences in bargaining strategies. These different dynamics manifest in mixed-gender coalitions being less stable when the excluded party is male rather than female. Men are more likely to make opening offers and enjoy a payoff advantage for doing so, but women suffer backlash for proposing first.”

Brief Bio

Diogo Geraldes is a Senior Assistant Professor at the University College Dublin – School of Economics since August 2022. Diogo’s main research interests lie in the fields of Behavioral Economics, Experimental Economics, and Game Theory. Before arriving in beautiful Dublin, Diogo’s academic path navigated through Lisboa (Nova University), Barcelona (Pompeu Fabra University), New York (Columbia University), Maastricht University, and Utrecht University.

Additionally, Diogo is a Research Fellow of the Geary Institute for Public Policy and a Member of the UCD Behavioral Science & Policy Group. And also a Researcher at the Science of Diversity & Inclusion Initiative (University of Chicago).