CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – May 30^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Marriage, Divorce and Child Development”

Mónica Costa Dias  –  Cef.up, School of Economics, Bristol University and Institute for Fiscal Studies

Abstract:

“My research interests are in the fields of labour, family and public economics, and applied econometrics. I study how inequalities build over the course of life and are transmitted across generations, how policy interacts with the formation of inequalities and how it can be designed to ameliorate poverty and its long lasting impacts. In my work, I use applied economic theory and applied econometrics, which I often combine in structural models of economic behaviour, to gain a better understanding of individual choices, how they interact in markets and how they respond to economic incentives.

My research has been funded by, among others, the Economic and Social Research Council (UK) and the European Commission, and has been published in leading academic journals such as Econometrica, the Journal of Political Economy, Quantitative Economics, Journal of Labor Economics or the Journal of Human Resources.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Monday – May 15^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“What We Do in the Shadows: How Urban Density Facilitates Information Diffusion”

Evan Kresch– Oberlin College (joint work with Qing Zhang)

Abstract:

“Does urban density facilitate the diffusion of information? This paper exploits plausibly exogenous variation generated by a unique national policy in China that requires all residential buildings to receive sufficient hours of sunshine. The policy creates higher degrees of restriction on density at higher latitudes, where longer shadows require buildings to be further apart. Data on individual housing projects across China reveal that the cross-latitude variation in regulatory residential Floor Area Ratio can be described quite well by a formula linking structure density to latitude through the solar elevation angle. These differences in building density further induce differences in population density and land prices across latitudes. Using differential topic dynamics on a national petition platform to measure information diffusion, this paper shows that people respond to shifts in government attention with varying speeds across latitudes. Increases in local government reply rate to a topic raises the volume of subsequent posts on the same topic, exhibiting an S-shaped time trajectory consistent with local information diffusion about shifting government priorities. These responses are systematically faster in southern cities, where density is higher. Survey evidence further indicates that otherwise similar individuals are more likely to gossip about public issues in a southern city.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – April 11^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Can the keyboard beat the good old pen? The effect of computer-based testing on students’ performance”

João Pereira dos Santos – ISEG (joint work with Ana Ruis and Luís Catela)

Abstract:

“Computer-based testing is being increasingly adopted by several education institutions worldwide. Whether this transition from paper-based testing yields different impacts on students’ performance is still an open question. This paper aims to assess the impact of computer-based testing exploiting a large-scale pilot-program deployed in 2022 low-stake exams in Portugal. We rely on rich crosssectional student-level data to implement pooled OLS and difference in differences approaches. Results indicate statistically significant differences in students’ score between computer-based and paper-based testing with differences ranging from -5pp to -24pp. Finally, we discuss important heterogeneity effects and implications of implementing this policy at scale.”

CEF.UP – ECO- MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – March 28^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The logics of non-commerciality in the cinematic ecosystem”

Christopher Mathieu – Lund University

Abstract:

“Film is one of the most expensive and commercially oriented art forms. It is estimated that the average cost of producing a Hollywood (American major studio) feature film is USD 65-75m, with approximately half as much again (about USD 35m) spent on marketing (Studiobinder 2013). The sums are high, and the ratio of marketing budget to production cost is indicative of a high commercial interest and effort. The sums are lower for non-Hollywood films, but the commercial orientation is in most cases similar. However, non-commercial films (defined here as film projects and products that neither have an intention or demand to generate profit or even recoup financial investment) and logics of non-commerciality exist and play various roles in the wider cinematic ecosystem. Several distinct non-commercial subsystems exist within the wider cinematic ecosystem. Some have virtually no interaction with the dominant commercial systems, often meeting other contemporary societal goals (Miller 2016; Kerr 1993), while others play direct and specific roles for the commercial mainstream (Fox 2022; Brown 2014; Cuzner 2009). Focusing on live-action fiction as opposed to documentary or animation film, and production as opposed to non-commercial exhibition (Santos & Miranda 2022) this article maps: the various logics behind non-commercial filmmaking; the various values realised by non-commercial film in different contexts; past, current, and potential future relationships with the commercial domain; and the managerial challenges and possibilities afforded by non-commercial film production.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – March 7^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Robots at work: new evidence with recent data”

Derick Almeida – Universidade de Coimbra (joint work with Tiago Sequeira)

Abstract:

“We reassess the relationship between robotization and the growth in labor productivity in the light of more recent data. We discover that the effect of robot density in the growth productivity substantially decreased in the post-2008 crisis period. In this more recent period, the less strong positive effect of robot density in the growth of productivity depends less on the increase in the value added due to robotization. The data analysis dismisses any positive effect of robotization on hours worked. Results are confirmed by several robustness checks, cross-sectional IV and quantile regression analysis and through panel data quantile and IV analysis. By means of the quantile regression analysis, we learn that the effect of robots on labor productivity is stronger for low productivity sectors and that in the most recent period, the effect of robotization felt significantly throughout the distribution. This highlights one of the possible sources of the secular stagnation in the era of robotization and artificial intelligence technologies.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – February 24^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The Spatial Dimension of Import Competition”

Joakim Gullstrand – Lund University (joint work with Polina Knutsson)

Abstract:

“Exposure to international competition on a country level has been shown to improve the efficiency of domestic producers. We contribute to this literature by studying whether the distance between producers and importers within a country matters for import competition effects at the product level. Using highly detailed geographical information about the location of Swedish manufacturing firms over 2005–2014, we find robust evidence of an increased efficiency in the domestic production when imports rise, but that the effect declines with the distance between the producer and the importer. In addition to the importance of the geographical pattern within a country, we find that the average effect of import competition conceals large variations across firms and products. Highly productive firms respond to import competition by further improving efficiency, which, in turn, translates into both a lower price and a higher markup. Firms are also more likely to drop fringe products while keeping core ones. Products undercut by low import prices within their close proximity respond by lowering prices only, although highly efficient products resist this by a more pronounced improvement in the marginal cost, which, in turn, translates into both a lower price and a higher markup.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – February 3^rd, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Gambling to Preserve Price (and Fiscal) Stability”

Bartosz Maćkowiak – European Central Bank and CEPR (joint work with Giancarlo Corsetti)

Abstract:

“We study a model in which policy aims at aggregate price stability. A fiscal imbalance materializes that, if uncorrected, must cause inflation, but the imbalance may get corrected in the future with some probability. By maintaining price stability in the near term, monetary policy can buy time for a correction to take place. The policy gamble may succeed, with price stability preserved indefinitely, or fail, leading to a delayed, possibly large jump in the price level. The resulting dynamics resemble the models of a currency crisis following Krugman (1979) and Obstfeld (1986). Like in Obstfeld’s work, multiple equilibria arise naturally: whether or not price stability is preserved may depend on private agents’ expectations. The model can be reinterpreted as a model of partial default on public debt, in which case it is reminiscent of Calvo (1988).”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – January 27^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The Japanese Textile Sector and the Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1920”

Ilan Noy – Victoria University of Wellington (joint work with Toshihiro Okubo and Eric Ströbl)

Abstract:

“The ongoing global pandemic has brought into sharp relief the possible interactions between the epidemiology of a virus, the structure of the economy and society that becomes exposed to it, and the actions chosen by government, individuals, and communities to combat it or ameliorate its economic impact. Surprisingly, there has not been sufficient research on these economic and policy interactions of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic – the deadliest pandemic of the 20th century. The focus of much of the research has been on the pandemic’s mortality and other demographic impacts. This paper focuses on Japan, which as a minor participant, was not directly affected by World War I. We exploit the diversity of experiences with the pandemic and its attendant policy responses across Japanese prefectures; and investigate the importance of the pandemic’s toll (measured by excess mortality), and of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs), in determining the pandemic’s economic impact. We do so by focusing on the production and employment in the textile sector, given the availability of data and the general importance of the textile sector for emerging economies (as Japan was at the time). We investigate the role of NPIs in ameliorating the economic costs for the sector during the pandemic years (1918-1920), and indeed find that the implemented NPIs were effective in ameliorating the pandemic’s economic consequences, rather than worsening them. In this case, there was no trade-off between money and life, but rather the two were complimentary.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – December 15^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy”

Giovanni Ricco – University of Warwick

Abstract:

“The US monetary policy propagates internationally by affecting external demand and due to the role of the dollar as the world’s dominant currency in financial markets, trade invoicing, and foreign exchange reserves. We quantify spillover effects by employing a state-of-the-art high-frequency identification and big data techniques, in conjunction with a harmonised dataset covering 30 economies and over 150,000 data-points. We report three novel stylised facts. First, a US monetary policy tightening has large and qualitatively homogeneous real and nominal contractionary spillovers onto both advanced and emerging economies. Second, flexible exchange rates cannot fully insulate domestic economies. Movements in risk premia limit central banks’ ability to control the yield curve, even in advanced economies. Third, financial channels dominate over demand and exchange rate channels in the transmission to real variables, while the transmission via oil and commodity prices determines nominal spillovers. The latter is an important novel channel not previously reported in the literature. ”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – December 13^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“An Experiment on Gender Representation in Majoritarian Bargaining”

 Diogo Geraldes – University College Dublin – School of Economics

Abstract:

“Women are underrepresented in political and business decision-making bodies across the world. To investigate the causal effect of gender representation on multilateral negotiations, we experimentally manipulate the composition of triads in a majoritarian, divide-the-dollar game. First, we find that inclusive splits and unanimous agreement rates are highest in all-female groups and lowest in all-male groups suggesting that female representation increases fairness. Second, we document a robust gender gap in earnings, driven largely by the exclusion of women from coalitions rather than differential shares within coalitions. Experiments with different subject pools show that distinct bargaining dynamics can underlie the same inequitable outcomes: While gender-biased outcomes are sometimes caused by outright discrimination, they can also be driven by more complex dynamics related to gender differences in bargaining strategies. These different dynamics manifest in mixed-gender coalitions being less stable when the excluded party is male rather than female. Men are more likely to make opening offers and enjoy a payoff advantage for doing so, but women suffer backlash for proposing first.”

Brief Bio

Diogo Geraldes is a Senior Assistant Professor at the University College Dublin – School of Economics since August 2022. Diogo’s main research interests lie in the fields of Behavioral Economics, Experimental Economics, and Game Theory. Before arriving in beautiful Dublin, Diogo’s academic path navigated through Lisboa (Nova University), Barcelona (Pompeu Fabra University), New York (Columbia University), Maastricht University, and Utrecht University.

Additionally, Diogo is a Research Fellow of the Geary Institute for Public Policy and a Member of the UCD Behavioral Science & Policy Group. And also a Researcher at the Science of Diversity & Inclusion Initiative (University of Chicago).

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – November 29^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Spectral decomposition of the information about latent variables in dynamic macroeconomic models”

 Nikolay Iskrev – Banco de Portugal

Abstract:

“In this paper, I show how to perform spectral decomposition of the information about latent variables in dynamic economic models. A model describes the joint probability distribution of a set of observed and latent variables. The amount of information transferred from the former to the latter is measured by the reduction of uncertainty in the posterior compared to the prior distribution of any given latent variable. Casting the analysis in the frequency domain allows decomposing the total amount of information in terms of frequency-specific contributions as well as in terms of information contributed by individual observed variables. I illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology with applications to two DSGE models taken from the literature.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – October 25^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Firm Heterogeneity, Market Power and Macroeconomic Fragility”

 Francisco Queirós – Università Federico II

Abstract:

“We study how firm heterogeneity and market power affect macroeconomic fragility, defined as the probability of long-lasting recessions. We propose a theory in which the positive interaction between firm entry, competition and factor supply can give rise to multiple steady-states. We show that when firm heterogeneity is large, even small temporary shocks can trigger firm exit and make the economy spiral in a competition-driven poverty trap. Calibrating our model to incorporate the well-documented trends in increasing firm heterogeneity in the US economy, we find that, relative to 2007, an economy with the 1990 level of firm heterogeneity is 1.5 to 2 times less likely to experience a deep recession.We use our framework to study the 2008–09 recession and show that the model can rationalize the persistent deviation of output and most macroeconomic aggregates from trend, including the behavior of net entry, markups and the labor share. Post-crisis cross-industry data corroborates our proposed mechanism. We conclude by showing that firm subsidies can be powerful in preventing quasi-permanent recessions and can lead to up to a 21% increase in welfare.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – October 11^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“The current energy crisis in historical perspective”

 Astrid Kander – Lund University

Abstract:

“The energy crisis of 2022 has several similarities to the oil crises of the 1970s, but there are also differences. This paper takes a very long perspective on the situation where EU tries to free itself from fossil fuels to save the climate, and at the same time urgently stand united in the energy war that Putin has inflicted on especially Germany, but indirectly all of EU, by stopping the gas deliveries via Nord stream 1. We will discuss historical and contemporary limitations of areal energy resources, as well as the inflation and interest increases, which will possibly lead to stagflation (like in the 1970s), and the impact on energy markets as well as stock exchange markets. Last we will briefly touch upon whether this  energy crisis will make move EU faster in achieving its climate ambitions or the contrary.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – September 27^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Firm Dynamics and Sectoral Reallocation with Hugo Hopenhayn and Rish Singhania”

 Julian Neira – University of Exeter, UK

Abstract:

This paper presents a tractable framework to jointly study patterns of sectoral reallocation and firm dynamics. The framework features input-output linkages across sectors, heterogeneous rates of firm creation and destruction, and common factor markets. We characterize the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium. We present applications to sectoral reallocations in US data.

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – September 16^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Public housing development and segregation: SRU law in France”

Guillaume Chapelle  – THEMA, CY Cergy Paris Université,  France

Abstract:

We study the effects of the SRU law introduced in France in December 2000 to support scattered development of public housing in cities and favor social mixity. This law imposes 20% of public housing to all medium and large municipalities of large-enough cities, with fees for those not abiding by the law. Using exhaustive fiscal data, we evaluate the effects of the law over the 1996-2008 period using a difference-in-differences approach at the municipality level. We find that the law stimulated public housing construction in treated municipalities with a low proportion of public dwellings. Within these municipalities, it decreased public housing segregation but it did not decrease much low-income segregation. We investigate their intra-municipal dynamics by running block-level regressions that include municipality fixed effects. Within these treated municipalities, the concentration of public dwellings increased to a larger extent in blocks with below-average income and below-average concentration of public dwellings.

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – July 12^th, 2022, at 1:00 p.m. |Room 305| Online

“Social Distancing and Risk Taking: Evidence from a Team Game Show”

José de Sousa  – Université Paris-Saclay (joint work with Jean-Marc Bourgeon and Alexis Noir-Luhalwe)

Abstract:

“We examine the risky choices of pairs of contestants in a popular radio game show in France. At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the show, traditionally held in person, had to switch to all remote. We find that this exogenous change in social context affects risk-taking behavior. Remotely, pairs take far fewer risks when the stakes are high than in the flesh. This behavioral difference is consistent with prosocial behavior theories, which argue that the nature of social interactions influences risky choices. Our results suggest that working from home may reduce participation in profitable but risky team projects.”