CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Monday – June 17^th , 2024 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 631 | Online

“Developing and Publishing Systematic Literature Reviews in Premier Business Outlets”

Michael Christofi – School of Economics and Management – Cyprus University of Technology (Cyprus)

The seminar will briefly explain what a systematic literature review is, as well as the various categories of systematic review articles. Continuing, it will mainly focus on the basics steps for developing such type of articles, with practical examples of systematic review papers published in premier business outlets. Finally, the seminar will provide tips and recommendations when it comes to submit such manuscripts for publication in premier business journals, by analysing what editors and reviewers see when it comes to review such papers.

CEF.UP – WiP Seminar/Webinar

Friday – June 7^th, 2024 at 13:00h (1 pm) | Room 305 | Online

Fiscal Policy Dispersion in the Euro Area – a new quantitative index

Daniel Loureiro – FEP – School of Economics and Management – University of Porto and Cef.Up

Abstract:

“We developed a new Fiscal Dispersion Index to assess fiscal policy coordination in the Euro Area and complement the existent literature. We found greater fiscal policy dispersion around the years of economic crisis, signaling a deterioration of coordination. Besides, we highlighted Portugal as one the most problematic countries, continuously deviating from the average policies. However, the direction of the Portuguese deviation is not constant over time. It shifted from looser policies between 2000 and 2007 to tighter policies from 2016 to 2021. Moreover, we also found that Germany and Netherlands pursued tighter policies than the average, particularly when facing common shocks. Thus, we recommend that additional measures should be approved to improve coordination during the more challenging times, preventing insufficient expansionary policies. Failing to do so will likely hamper the credibility of the European framework and institutions.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – June 6^th, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

Manipulating Growth: The Unintended Consequences of Antitrust Policies on Small Firms

Gustavo Grullon– Rice University

Abstract:

“Recent evidence indicates that acquirers avoid antitrust regulatory scrutiny by targeting firms whose size fall below exemption thresholds. We find evidence that potential targets near these thresholds intentionally reduce their size, which makes them more attractive targets for stealth acquisitions. They achieve this by limiting asset growth and increasing their payouts when they have excess cash. Our results indicate that this effect is especially pronounced for firms with liquidity needs and is driven, in part, by exit strategy motives. Overall, our results reveal that antitrust exemptions can create perverse incentives that can offset public policies aimed at promoting the growth of small firms.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – June 4^th , 2024 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 631 | Online

“Peer pressure and manager pressure in organisations”

Tom Kirchmaier – LSE – London School of Economics and Political Science (England, United Kingdom)

Abstract:

“We study the interaction between horizontal (peer) and vertical (manager) social factors in workers’ motivation. In our setting, individuals work using open-plan desks. Using a natural experiment, we identify a sharp increase in workers’ productivity following the occupation of adjacent desks. We link this peer pressure effect to two key aspects of the worker-manager relation. First, we find stronger peer pressure when managers monitor workers less. Second, we find stronger peer pressure among workers performance-evaluated by the same manager. In a set of counterfactual exercises, we illustrate how organisations could take advantage of these interdependencies to increase worker productivity. ”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – June 4^th, 2024, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Uncertainty shocks in monetary unions: The case for a nominal anchor”

Benjamin Born  –  Frankfurt School of Finance & Management (Germany)

Abstract:

“Uncertainty shocks contract economic activity and arguably more so if monetary policy cannot cushion their effect. Yet, as we employ a Bayesian VAR model to identify and contrast the effects of country-specific and common uncertainty shocks on the countries in the euro area, we find that countryspecific shocks have milder effects—even though they are not accommodated by monetary policy. We rationalize this result in a two-country model of a monetary union and find that union membership provides a nominal anchor for the price level, thereby dampening the “markup channel” through which the adverse effects of uncertainty shocks unfold.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar

Tuesday – May 28^th , 2024 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 631

MEET THE EDITORS

This seminar is an opportunity to meet and talk with the editors of selected journals, all of them affiliated with FEP – School of Economics and Management of the University of Porto.

Editors will answer questions about the journals, discuss the submission and review processes, and provide attendees with advice on how to increase the likelihood of publication.

• João Oliveira (Qualitative Research in Accounting & Management)
• Luísa Pinto (Journal of Global Mobility)
• Amélia Brandão (International Journal of Consumer Studies)
• Dalila Fontes (Journal of Combinatorial Optimization)

Moderator: Teresa Fernandes (Services Marketing Quarterly)

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – May 28^th, 2024, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Optimal Redistribution with Government Debt“ (with Kirill Shaknov)

Facundo Piguillem  –  Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (Italy)

Abstract:

“We analyze the tight relationship between government debt, redistribution and capital taxation in Overlapping Generations Economies (OLG). We do so in an heterogeneous agents economy where the government collects capital and progressive labor taxes to pay government spending, debt and redistribute income. In this environment, the Ramsey planner uses all taxes, even in the long run. We show that rising inequality leads not only to more progressivity, but also to more government debt and capital taxation. The necessary increase in debt to achieve the optimal redistribution policy can be substantial. We explore how limits to government’s borrowing choices severely restrict its ability to redistribute income. We calibrate the model to the U.S. in the 2000-10 decade and estimate the optimal response to the observed change in inequality. We find the optimal level of debt should approximately doubled.”

CEF.UP – WiP Seminar/Webinar

Friday – May 24^th, 2024 at 13:00h (1 pm) | Room 305 | Online

The Political Economy of Central Bank Digital Currencies and Monetary Policy

Francisco Nunes Pereira – FEP – School of Economics and Management, University of Porto and Cef.Up

Abstract:

This paper scrutinizes the monetary policy case in favor of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) from a political economy angle. The proponents of CBDCs argue that their introduction would streamline the monetary policy transmission mechanism, enable novel policy interventions, and enhance data collection capabilities, ultimately leading to improved central bank performance. However, the arrangements of monetary institutions result in central banks entangled in incentive and epistemic issues, which limit their performance. CBDCs not only fail to mitigate these problems but indeed exacerbate them. We argue that the central bank becomes more vulnerable to political interference and rent-seeking activities once a CBDC is created. Moreover, the enhanced ability to monitor economic activities may lead central banks to succumb to the ‘pretense of knowledge syndrome,’ which compounds the incentives for discretionary interventions. We conclude that there is a means-ends inconsistency in the monetary policy case for CBDCs.

CEF.UP – ECO/FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – May 23^rd, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

Bank Specialization in Lending to New Firms

Diana Bonfim– Banco de Portugal and European Central Bank

Abstract:

“We formulate a novel dimension of bank-lending specialization—specialization in lending to new firms—and investigate its impact on the creation, credit access, and survival of new businesses. We exploit a Portuguese reform that drastically reduced the red tape of starting a new firm and that was rolled out in a staggered manner across municipalities. We show that while reducing regulatory barriers stimulates business creation, this effect depends crucially on the pre-reform local presence of bank branches specialized in lending to new firms. A greater presence of such branches is associated with improved credit access and higher leverage of new local businesses. Moreover, new firms that obtain loans from specialized branches exhibit an up to 12 percent higher survival rate.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – May 21^th , 2024 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 631 | Online

” Understanding the complexity of ethics, moral blindness and designing an ethics experience that inspires ethical behaviour“

Ana Roque – FEP – School of Economics and Management, University of Porto

Abstract:

“Organisations positioning regarding ethics is still, in general terms, reactive and compliance oriented. When we look at companies reports, we see that very few include people from the ethics office in core management committees, such as marketing, product development, or innovation. However, ethics is nowadays fundamental from the perspective of internal culture and climate, organizational development, reputation, and is a necessary condition for a true and consistent path towards sustainable development.There are many obstacles preventing ethics from being present in the daily lives of organizations, which would be important. The name itself can be intimidating; some people might think we’re talking about morality, but ethics and morality are not the same thing. There are many myths, starting with the idea that being ethical is easy, that bad practices are essentially a matter of a few bad apples, and that an ethics program can be unilaterally created, almost just a code (as we see in many organizations), and that this has power over culture.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – May 16^th, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Invest as for Your Kids: Performance and Implications of Children’s Investment Accounts on Portfolios in Adulthood“

Jarkko Peltomaki– Stockholm University (Sweden)

Abstract:

“We explore the performance of custodial investment accounts for children and their implications on portfolios in adulthood. We find that children’s accounts, often resembling passive investment strategies, yield annual returns three times higher with lower volatility compared to adults’ accounts. Parental risk-taking behavior does not significantly differ for kids of different genders during early childhood. However, a notable shift occurs once boys enter their teenage years, as their accounts begin to mirror the investment patterns typically associated with adult men. Consequently, during this phase, boys’ accounts tend to underperform relative to those of girls. Furthermore, we document that individuals whose investment accounts were initiated by their parents during childhood consistently demonstrate superior performance as young adults compared to peers who opened accounts themselves. Moreover, they exhibit a narrowed gap in risk-taking behavior observed between men and women. These findings emphasize the importance of passive investment strategies and highlight the influential role parental interventions play in shaping investment attitudes.”

CEF.UP – SPECIAL Seminar/Webinar

Wednesday – May 15^th, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Paying attention: brain contraints on attention, learning and decision making” 

Genela Morris  – Technion – Israel Institute of Technology (Israel)

Abstract:

“Everyday decision-making demands the ability to distill complex and multifaceted information into actionable responses. These responses are typically geared toward favorable outcomes, rooted in reinforcement learning principles. While decades of research have unraveled the neural substrates of reinforcement learning, the process is inherently twofold. Effective decision-making hinges not only on learning the best actions in a given context but also on discerning relevant attributes of the environment to inform those decisions. In this seminar, I propose a theoretical framework that distinguishes between the learning of value and attention and elucidates their interplay. Drawing on experimental evidence from our rodent and non-human primate studies, I will share our suggestions on the distinct and complementary roles of striatal dopamine and acetylcholine in orchestrating this intricate process. I conclude by urging scholars of economic behavior and decision making to consider the brain mechanisms underlying attention, learning, and decision-making”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – April 23^rd , 2024 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 631 | Online

“Driving Supply Chain Sustainability: The Crucial Role of Optimization in Achieving Sustainable Practices”

Ana Paula Póvoa – Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa

Abstract:

“In today’s rapidly evolving scenery, the significance of sustainability has gained immense recognition, urging supply chains to embark on the journey towards building sustainable practices. Sustainable supply chains can be best described as complex networks of entities that oversee the management of products, encompassing suppliers, customers, and returns, while considering social, environmental, and economic objectives concurrently. However, the complexity of these systems poses a challenge in simultaneously addressing environmental and social goals alongside the traditional objective of profitability. To deal with these challenges, the development of decision-supporting tools for supply chain decision-makers is crucial. This talk focuses on the components of such tools, employing a systemic approach. Highlights the utilization of optimization-based models that effectively capture sustainability goals, considering the unique characteristics of supply chains. These tools enable the design and planning of sustainable supply chains, providing a solution that strikes a balance among economic, environmental, and social objectives. Furthermore, this talk identifies and discusses key perspectives and challenges associated with sustainable supply chains, which serve as catalysts for further research in the field. By delving into these aspects, we can foster a deeper understanding of the subject and inspire innovative approaches towards achieving sustainability within supply chains.”

CEF.UP – WiP Seminar/Webinar

Monday – April 22^nd, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“Keeping it in the Family: Student to Degree Match”

Pedro Luís Silva – FEP, Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies (CIPES) and Institute of Labour Economics (IZA) (joint work with Richard Murphy)

Abstract:

“This paper examines systematic inequalities in the match between students and the university degree they apply to, and enroll in. Using linked administrative data on the population of Portuguese applicants we create a transparent and continuous measure of student-to-degree match employing minimal assumptions. We find that students who are first in the family to attend post-secondary education consistently match to lower quality degrees across the entire achievement distribution. In contrast, only the highest achieving female students relatively undermatch. These gaps are larger at the application stage. We explore the role of student preferences and the consequences for intergenerational mobility.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – April 18^th, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The Information Content of Central Bank Disclosures: Firm-level Evidence from Eurosystem Collateral Haircuts”

Aytekin Ertan – London Business School (England, United Kingdom)

Abstract:

“This paper explores firm-specific central bank disclosures, specifically the Eurosystem’s collateral haircuts on nonfinancial corporate bonds. Our findings reveal that updates to collateral haircuts by central banks are significant: they not only trigger reactions in debt capital markets, but also predict future changes in issuers’s credit ratings and overall financial health. Our analysis further highlights that impact of these haircut revisions is more pronounced among riskier issuers, firms with bank debt, and in periods of greater uncertainty. Overall, our study underscores the relevance of firm-specific central bank information and provides new insights into the role of collateral haircut policies in the financial landscape.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – April 11^th, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

Suppliers, Investors, and Equity Market Liberalizations

Martin Strieborny  – Adam Smith Business School – University of Glasgow (Scotland, United Kingdom)

Abstract:

“Allowing foreign investors to acquire equity stakes in domestic firms stimulates the real economy by promoting frictionless relationships between buyers and suppliers of intermediate goods. I combine insights from research on financial liberalization and relationships specific investment to derive this hypothesis and then use a difference-in-difference empirical framework to test it. Results from panel-data and event-study estimations confirm that equity market liberalizations boost output growth particularly in suppliers-dependent industries that require a high share of specialized inputs in their production process. Financial openness can thus facilitate smooth interactions between firms and an important corporate stakeholder – suppliers of crucial production inputs.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – April 9^th , 2024 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 631 | Online

“Influence of governance instruments on supply chain quality: a qualitative investigation in the dairy industry”

Márcio Cardoso Machado – Universidade Paulista (Brazil)

Abstract:

“Purpose– This paper aims to explore the formal (i.e. contracts, standards, processes, and structure) and informal (i.e. social structure, norms, information sharing, andvalue systemand culture) governance instruments used in supply networks and their influence on quality. Design/methodology/approach – This research is qualitative-exploratory in nature, involving semi structured interviews with 20 managers from three essential layers in the dairy industry’s supply chain: companies that supply essential inputs to milk producers; milk producers; and milk cooperatives. Findings – Analysis of the generated data show that formal governance instruments have a strong and/or weak influence on products’ and operations’ quality in the dairy industry context; in formal instruments have a strong and/or weak influence on quality, as a counterpart to formal instruments; and the integration of verified governance instruments positively influences the quality of products and operations. Practical implications –This paper offers several managerial and practical implications. The first is to encourage suppliers of primary inputs and milk producers to invest in the formal structure, primarily informal contracts with each other. The second implication suggests the relevance of creating different training and qualification courses with members fromal lorganizational levels. Third, there is a need for cooperatives, encompassing all industries, to consider several informal instruments, complementary to contracts and standards currently used for processes. Originality/value–Governance instruments can lead to desired supply chain outcomes, including those related to quality. Although previous supply chain studies have investigated the relationship between governance instruments and the supply chain, and quality management and the supply chain, studies on governance instruments’ influence on supply chain quality are limited.

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – April 9^th, 2024, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“A Temporary VAT Cut in Three Acts: Announcement, Implementation, and Reversal” (joint work with Tiago Bernardino, Ricardo Duque Gabriel e Márcia Silva-Pereira)

João Nuno Quelhas   –  Banco de Portugal

Abstract:

“We investigate the pass-through of a Value-Added Tax (VAT) decrease to consumer prices, using Portugal’s temporary cut in VAT for a subset of food items in 2023 as a laboratory. Exploiting a novel high-frequency dataset of online retail prices, we use an event study approach to analyze price dynamics across the complete policy lifetime. We find that prices rose by around 1% upon announcement, that the pass-through was almost complete when the policy was implemented, and around 70% at the reversal. The reduction in prices persisted high over the entire duration of the policy. We estimate that the policy decreased month-on-month inflation by 0.7 percentage points. We also find evidence of deflation in producer prices which could be a potential mechanism driving the high pass-through.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – April 2^nd , 2024 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 631 | Online

“Identifying Competitors in Geographical Markets Using the CSIS Method” (joint work with Xian Gu)

P. K. Kannan – Robert H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland (United States of America)

Abstract:

“Identifying the most relevant competitors in a geographical market is an important and necessary requirement for businesses with a significant offline presence, such as hotels, restaurants, and retail stores. In particular, the specific location of a business and the geographical density of potential competitors can be critical factors in determining the competitive structure. However, this task can be quite difficult when the potential competitive set is large, and the competition is asymmetric. In this study, we apply the Conditional Sure Independence Screening (CSIS) method to a system of demand functions for competitor identification. This method offers significant computational efficiency because it estimates a marginal regression for each potential competitor instead of estimating a full model consisting of all potential competitors. To validate the effectiveness of our method and explore the boundary conditions of its performance, we conduct extensive simulation analyses under different spatial data generating processes. We show that our CSIS method’s performance is superior to multiple other variable selection approaches in identifying true competitors and is robust under spatial misspecifications. Then we apply our method to hotel competition in two U.S. geographical regions and show how the competitive structure varies across geographical densities and market segments. Finally, we highlight how managers can use the results strategically and outline the potential of the method for other non-geographical applications.”

CEF.UP – FIN/ECO Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – March 21^st, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Information Frictions and Firm Take up of Government Support: A Randomised Controlled Experiment” 

Diogo Mendes  – Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden)

Abstract:

“This paper studies whether informational frictions prevent firms from accessing government support using a randomised controlled trial. We focus on two Portuguese COVID-19 relief programs, providing (i) wage support for workers who are kept on payroll and (ii) credit lines backed by government guarantees. We randomly assign firms to a treatment providing either simplified information about a program, or a combination information and step-by-step application support. We find a significant treatment effect on take up of the wage support program. Our results constitute direct evidence that information frictions act as a barrier to comprehensive distribution of firm-level support measures.”

CEF.UP – WiP Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – March 19^st, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

Title: “Fissured Firms and Worker Outcomes” (with Matias Cortes – York University;  Diego Dabed – Utrecht University; Anna Salomons – Utrecht University)

Ana Oliveira – Utrecht University (Netherlands)

Abstract:

“We consider how firms’ organization of production relates to workers’ wages. Using matched employer-employee data from Portugal, we document that, within detailed industries, firms differ starkly in terms of their occupational employment concentration, with some firms employing workers across a broad range of occupations and others being much more specialized. These differences are robustly predictive of wages: a worker employed in a specialized, i.e. `fissured’ firm earns less than that same worker employed in a less specialized firm. This wage penalty cannot exclusively be explained by worker-firm sorting, and is observed across a wide range of occupations. Firm specialization helps account for the role of firms in inequality: over half of the wage penalty from specialization is explained by differences in firm productivity, and firm specialization is strongly negatively related to AKM firm fixed effects. However, the evidence does not support a large role for increased pay transparency or lower rent-sharing as mechanisms for the observed wage penalty from firm specialization.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – March 7^th, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Service Flows in Euro Area Corporate Bonds” (joint work with Felix Corell and Melina Papoutsi)

Lira Mota  – MIT Sloan School of Management (United States of America)

Abstract:

“Investors place value on financial assets not only for their cash flows but also for the additional services they offer, such as acting as a reliable store of value, serving as collateral, and meeting capital and liquidity requirements. These services have traditionally been valued as “convenience yields,” a reduced-form measure that is silent about the potentially multifaceted nature of these service flows. By analyzing detailed price and holdings data of the euro area corporate bond market, this paper reveals the persistent variations in convenience yields across different sector portfolios, with banks, insurance companies, and pension funds leading, and the lowest yields noted in foreign-held portfolios. Notably, post-ECB corporate quantitative easing, the ECB’s portfolio emerged with the highest convenience yield. Our findings suggest that factors such as collateral value, regulatory capital requirements, and liquidity needs are primary drivers of convenience yields in Euro area corporate bonds. Furthermore, it highlights the importance of service flows for the transmission of monetary policy.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – March 5^th , 2024 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 631 | Online

“Tackling the Hidden Gender Gap: Unveiling Discrimination in EU Recovery Strategies”

Maria Bastida Dominguez – Universidade de Santiago de Compostela – Faculty of Economics and Business Administration (Spain)

Abstract:

“This paper presents an analysis of the overlooked gender disparities in the European Union’s economic recovery plans, with a focus on Spain. The novel use of the input-output model in this study quantitatively reveals the gender gap inherent in these initiatives. A central part of the analysis is the examination of Spain’s National Action Plan, which, despite appearing genderneutral, inadvertently perpetuates gender inequalities. The study finds that the EU’s commitment to gender equality is not reflected in the actual implementation of recovery strategies, which tend to favour male-dominated sectors, marginalizing industries with higher female employment significantly affected by the pandemic. The use of the input-output model in this research positions it at the methodological forefront for addressing the gender gap in economic policy. The findings emphasize the discrepancy between policy intentions and actual implementation, highlighting the need for integrating gender-sensitive approaches into economic recovery plans to ensure equitable and inclusive post-pandemic recovery in the EU. Such integration is essential to ensure that post-pandemic recovery is not only equitable but also inclusive, effectively bridging the gap between policy and practice in the EU’s approach to economic recovery. ”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – March 1^st, 2024, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The Transmission of Foreign Demand Shocks”

Jeppe Druedahl  –  University of Copenhagen (Denmark)

Abstract:

“Introducing heterogeneous households into a New Keynesian model of a small open economy enables the model to fit a set of stylized empirical facts about the transmission of foreign demand shocks. In the absence of a strong labor income effect on consumption, the model counterfactually implies that domestic consumption decreases as the central bank raises the interest rate to curb domestic inflation. With plausible marginal propensities to consume, the model instead produces the observed increase in domestic consumption of both tradeable and non-tradeable goods. This implies that foreign demand shocks are more important for international business-cycle comovement than predicted by existing models. Our findings also have implications for stabilization policies: While monetary policy is well-suited to counteract foreign demand shocks, traditional fiscal policies are inadequate, as they do not provide sufficient stimulus to the tradeable sector. This poses a particular challenge for countries with a fixed exchange rate or in a monetary union.”

CEF.UP – WiP Seminar/Webinar

Friday – February 23^rd, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

Title: “On the disentanglement of an Economic Union” (with José M. Gaspar e Kiyohiro Ikeda)

Jorge Saraiva – FEP, School of Economics and Management, University of Porto and Universidade Portucalense

Abstract:

“We study how the unilateral withdrawal of a region from an economic union affects the spatial distribution of economic activity and social welfare. We explore the three-region quasi-linear log utility footloose entrepreneur model under the assumption that this dissent can be expressed as a higher transportation cost between the leaving party and the remaining union members. We find that a spatial distribution in which entrepreneurs are equally shared between the three regions is no longer possible and that asymmetric equilibria – in which the dissident region has the lowest share of entrepreneurs – arise. We also find that it is not stable for entrepreneurs to distribute them- selves only between the remaining regions in the union. We conclude that the leaving region’s share of entrepreneurs is higher, the lower the differential in transportation costs is, and the higher the mobility of workers between regions is. Finally, we also conclude that, from a global social welfare point of view, the economy as a whole attains its maximum well-being when most entrepreneurs do not live in the dissident region.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – February 22^nd, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Does Paying Passive Managers to Engage Improve ESG Performance?” (joint work with Marco Becht, Julian R. Franks and Hideaki Miyajima)

Kazunori Suzuki  – Waseda Business School (Japan)

Abstract:

“The paper studies a natural experiment in responsible investment conducted by the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF). In 2018 GPIF gave its largest passive manager a remunerated mandate to engage with portfolio companies to improve ESG and adopted best-in-class indexes, rewarding high ESG score companies with additional equity investment. Using private data and difference-in-differences analysis we show that engagement by the asset manager has improved scores. In an event study, we find that the conditional portfolio tilt significantly impacts share prices. We also provide evidence that ESG scores for Japan increased significantly more than for companies in other countries.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – February 20^th, 2024, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Closing the Gender Gap in Multilateral Negotiations Through Institutional Design“

Diogo Geraldes  –  University College Dublin (Ireland)

Abstract:

“Experimental evidence from different subject pools shows that men earn more than women in majoritarian negotiations. Three stylized modes of behavior emerge as potential reasons for the gap: men sort into making opening offers more often, prefer to partner with other men, and when partnering with each other, their coalitions are more stable compared to mixed-gender ones. We design three experimental interventions to investigate the explanatory role each channel plays in the emergence of the gap and, consequently, provide potential solutions. We find that enabling everyone to simultaneously make an initial proposal does not close the earnings gap, if anything, it weakly grows in magnitude. Hiding gender eliminates bias in coalition partner choice, alters bargaining dynamics, and equalizes mean earnings. Finally, allowing for instantly-binding agreements in bargaining closes the gap, not only because mixed-gender coalitions become more stable, but also because women become preferred partners. Our results highlight how the attributes of the negotiation environment interact with gender, and suggest that the design of bargaining institutions can be leveraged to promote gender equity.”

CEF.UP – WiP Seminar/Webinar

Wednesday – February 14^th, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

Title: “An overlapping-generations model with data-driven equilibrium behavior” (with Alexander Gorokhovsky)

Anna Rubinchik – FEP, School of Economics and Management, University of Porto

Abstract:

“We propose a class of overlapping generations models that can serve as a workhorse for policy analysis. Recent literature identifies several features of key observable economic variables in Europe and the U.S.: the life-cycle path of earnings is hump-shaped, while the aggregate variables — per-capita consumption and labor hours — exhibit a clear time trend. Our class generates non-monotonic life-cycle behavior of labor supply and the desired aggregate trends in all its balanced-growth equilibria (BGE). There is a finite number of these equilibria and at least one of them exists provided a single-generation consumer problem has a solution. The model has a constant-returns-to-scale production, nontrivial depreciation of capital, exogenous labor-saving growth and an arbitrary individual life-cycle productivity. The necessary restrictions imposed on preferences are consistent with those generating the aggregate trends in a representative-agent economy, while ruling out popular specifications such as Cobb-Douglas or CES. We characterize BGE with MaCurdy preferences and solve a parametrized model that yields at least two stationary equilibria with reasonable interest rates. The hump-shaped life-cycle consumption profile can be generated with an additional parameter interpreted as reflecting family structure or a desire for immediate gratification that peaks at mid-life.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – February 2^nd, 2024, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Good Rents versus Bad Rents: R&D Misallocation and Growth“

Antonin Bergeaud  –  HEC Paris (France)

Abstract:

“Firm price-cost markups may reflect (a) bigger step sizes from quality innovations that confer significant knowledge spillovers onto other firms, and/or (b) higher process efficiency than competing firms. We write down an endogenous growth model in which, compared with the laissez-faire equilibrium, the social planner would generally like to reallocate research resources towards high markup firms in case (a) so as to capitalize on knowledge spillovers but not in case (b). We then exploit unit price variation across firms in French manufacturing to assess the relative strength of these two forces. Viewed through the lens of our model, the French data are consistent with significant variation in innovation step sizes, and hence gains from mitigating R&D misallocation. The policy implication is that, to reach the social optimum, French research subsidies should favor only those high markup firms with “good” rents.”

CEF.UP – MaR – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – January 26^th, 2024, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Necessary condition analysis (NCA) with archival data: backgrounds and illustration”

Jan Dul – Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University (Netherlands)

Abstract:

“Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA; Dul 2016, 2020, 2021) is an emerging method that is now used in many business and management research fields and beyond. NCA understands cause-effect relations as “necessary but not sufficient” and not as probabilistic causality. “Necessary” means that an outcome will not occur without the right level of the condition, independently of the rest of the causal structure (thus the condition can be a “bottleneck”, “critical factor”, or “constraint”). In practice, the right level must be put and kept in place to avoid guaranteed failure and to allow the outcome to exist. NCA can be used as a stand-alone tool or in combination with regression-based approaches (e.g., multiple regression analysis, structural equation modeling) or Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). By adding a different logic and data analysis approach, for instance through the reuse of data with a necessity causal perspective, NCA adds both rigor and relevance to theory and data analysis and provides new possibilities for impactful publications.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – January 25^th, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Brexit, what Brexit? Euro area portfolio exposures to the United Kingdom since the Brexit referendum“

Daniel Carvalho  – Banco de Portugal (joint work with Martin Schmitz)

Abstract:

“We study euro area investors’ portfolio adjustment since the Brexit referendum in terms of securities issued in the UK or denominated in pound sterling, in the context of heightened policy uncertainty surrounding the exit process of the UK from the EU. Our sector-level analysis “looks-through” holdings of investment fund shares to gauge euro area sectors’ full exposures to debt securities and listed shares. Our key finding is the absence of a negative “Brexit-effect” for euro area investors, which would have rendered UK-issued and pound-denominated securities generally less attractive. Instead, we observe that euro area investors increased their absolute and relative exposures to UK-issued and pound-denominated debt securities since the Brexit referendum. The analysis also reveals an increase in the euro area’s exposure to listed shares issued by UK non-financial corporations, while the exposures to shares issued by UK banks declined. These findings should be seen against the backdrop of low yields on euro area debt securities and a strong recovery in UK share prices since the Brexit referendum, which appear to have largely outweighed the uncertainties associated with Brexit.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – January 18^th, 2024 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Do Specialized Distress Investors Undermine Upstream Lending?” (joint work with Irem Demirci and Miguel Oliveira)

Fernando Anjos – Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Abstract:

“A growing class of investors specializes in funding distressed firms. Specialization allows these investors to develop valuable expertise, which in principle can contribute to overall economic efficiency. Notwithstanding this argument, we show that specialized distress investors (SDIs) can inadvertently worsen borrower moral hazard, since these downstream financiers rescue firms after poor performance (bailout effect). Moreover, SDI presence can make upstream lenders develop a counter-intuitive preference towards projects with lower continuation value and/or worse agency problems, in order to reduce SDI entry. In contrast to these results, we show that from a longer-run perspective SDIs can actually help in managing borrower moral hazard. This occurs in the model when SDI entry makes it easier for upstream lenders to sustain a reputation of toughness, which can in turn be critical for disciplining borrowers.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – December 19^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Leveraging Expertise to Build Authority: Experimental Evidence”

Miguel Fonseca  –  University of Exeter

Abstract:

“Decision-makers often seek guidance from experts, whose authority is key for achieving efficiency gains. However, building authority from expertise is challenging, and there is very limited evidence on whether individuals strategically enable it and how. We conduct a laboratory experiment in which an expert recommends a course of action to a decision-maker, and players subsequently bargain over the split of payoffs. In our main treatment, players can bargain pre-play, and we ask whether they use this opportunity to establish authority. We find that pre-play bargaining triples the frequency of authority relationships, resulting in higher efficiency. Authority is strongly associated with agreements that align interests, but only when reached swiftly, indicating that participants exploit bargaining dynamics to signal their intentions. Finally, committing to pre-play bargaining outcomes does not enhance authority compared to non-binding promises due to more challenging bargaining dynamics under commitment. This finding helps explain why informal promises remain prevalent in social interactions.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – December 14^th, 2023 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The effectiveness of monetary incentives of independent directors in retail and in institutional mutual funds”

Ania Zalewska  – Leicester University

Abstract:

“Using a hand–collected data for boards from over 10,000 U.S. mutual funds in the 2002–2020 period, we document (studying fund liquidations) that the directors’ remuneration received from fund families aligns directors with fund families’ preferences in retail funds, whereas shares held by directors do not align them with shareholders’ preferences. The opposite effects are found for institutional funds. Our results indicate that when shareholders’ monitoring is weak (retail funds), directors’ share–ownership is ineffective in representing shareholders’ interests, and the size of directors’ remuneration signals poor governance. In contrast, directors’ remuneration signals pay–for–performance in institutional funds.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – December 5^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Optimal income redistribution”

Pavel Brendler  –  Bonn University

Abstract:

“What is the optimal income tax and Social Security policy?  We set up a rich quantitative model in which a Ramsey planner jointly chooses both programs by maximizing the welfare of currently alive and future generations. We find that the extent to which the government is willing to provide insurance through the income tax-and-transfer program vis-a-vis the pension system crucially depends on the weight the planner assigns to future generations as well as the persistence of wealth transmission across generations. Depending on the intergenerational weight, some of the joint reforms deliver Pareto improvements across generations (but not within generations).”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – November 30^th, 2023 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

Design risk: the curse of CPPIs

Raquel Gaspar– ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa

Abstract:

“This study underscores the notion that inadequately designed structured products or investment strategies have the potential to expose investors to unintended risks. Within this context, we introduce the concept of design risk into the portfolio insurance literature.

Specifically, our analysis focuses on Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) structures and draws comparisons with classical Option-Based Portfolio Insurance (OBPI) as well as naive strategies like Stop-Loss Portfolio Insurance (SLPI) or CPPI with a multiplier set at one.

To assess the effectiveness of these strategies, we employ conditional Monte Carlo simulations to control the terminal value of the underlying asset. Our findings reveal a noteworthy phenomenon: even in scenarios where the terminal value of the underlying asset exceeds several times its initial value, CPPI strategies can lead to a cash-lock situation. The probability of getting cash-locked is influenced more by the multiplier’s magnitude and the investment horizon than by the dynamics of the underlying asset.”

CEF.UP – WiP Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – November 21^st, 2023 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

“Efficiency of Resource Allocation in the Suppression of European Wildfires”

Zheng Hou – Cef.up

Abstract:

“In recent years, particularly 2022, heavy losses of property, injuries and deaths have been caused by wildfires in many European countries. Increasing wildfires exert pressure to balance cost, benefits and risks of wildfire management. Wildfire studies are less developed in Europe compared to the US. Several groups of factors have to be considered in wildfire suppression decisions: loss, expenditure, allocation of resources, environmental and socio-economic parameters. Previous studies on wildfire suppression usually apply simple econometrical models to address the relationship between only two among the factors above. To establish a framework to systematically assess efficiency in wildfire suppression involving all the main factors, this project will construct a Stochastic Frontier model in the form of Cost-and-Loss Distance Function using cross-sectional data on European wildfires. The model measures whether wildfire suppression cases are efficient in minimizing cost and loss and whether environmental and socio-economic parameters contribute to such efficiency. Fire managers often face trade-offs between environmental/property losses and expenditure spent on fire suppression with constraints on resources (machines, crews, etc.) available at hand. The research outcome will provide a reference to improve this decision process by helping identify where more resource is needed and justifying budget increase since there are locations where potentially require more resource for wildfire suppression. Finally, this project will contribute to efficiency improvement in wildfire suppression, and thus help achieve SDGs 3, 11, 13 and 15.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Friday – November 17^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“The cost-vs.-quality tradeoff in make-or-buy decisions”

Frederik Andersson  –  Lund University

Abstract:

“The make-or-buy decision is analyzed in a simple two-task principal-agent model. There is a cost-saving-vs.-quality trade-off in effort provision, both effort and outcome having these two dimensions. The principal faces a dichotomous choice between make/in-house, coming with weak cost-saving incentives for the agent, and buy/outsourcing, coming with strong incentives; the dichotomy is due to an incomplete-contracting limitation necessitating that one party be residual claimant of cost-savings. Choosing buy rather than make leads to higher cost-saving effort and in a plausible main case to lower effort directed towards quality and lower equilibrium quality, this in spite of stronger direct quality-provision incentives. The attractiveness of make-vs.-buy is explored and shown to be aligned with its impact on quality.”

CEF.UP – MaR Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – November 2^nd , 2023 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m. | Room 305 | Online

Publishing qualitative research in an ABS 4 management journal.

The example of the article “Translating healthcare research evidence into practice: The role of linked boundary objects”

Sara Melo – Queen’s Business School (QBS)

Abstract:

“Recent years have seen widespread interest in the process of evidence implementation and growth of implementation science. Whilst this work has drawn attention to the challenges and complexities of implementing evidence into everyday practice, for the most part, studies of implementation uphold the ideal of a linear ‘pipeline’ between research and front-line care. In contrast, this paper adopts a practice perspective on knowledge, and draws on science and technology studies concepts to identify how the socio-material environment contributes to the translation of evidence across multiple organisational and professional boundaries. Findings report on a qualitative case study of implementing fall prevention research evidence at a large teaching hospital in Portugal. Data is from forty-six in-depth semi-structured interviews with clinical and non-clinical staff.
The case highlights how linked boundary objects bridge temporally sequential boundaries between research and different practice communities, hence facilitating the translation of research evidence into everyday practice. The initial boundary object (the ‘Morse’ fall risk assessment scale) contributed to evidence being taken up by specialist nurses within the hospital, while a second boundary object (a pink patient wristband) engendered a change in practice of a wider network of actors. Nevertheless, the symbolic connection between the two linked boundary objects remained precarious, dependent on networks of interaction and communication. The study highlights the role of material objects in the ongoing translation of research evidence into everyday clinical practice.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – October 26^th, 2023 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Housing and Savings Behavior Across Family Types“

Annika Bacher– BI Norwegian Business School

Abstract:

“Does marital status affect households’ investment choices? Is accounting for distinct family types necessary for the correct evaluation of policies that aim at stimulating housing demand? To answer these questions, I develop a life-cycle model of housing and financial portfolio choice with dynamic and heterogeneous family types. I find that divorce risk encourages couples to accumulate liquid financial assets and reduces their demand for illiquid housing. Expected marriage, low income levels, and larger exposure to income fluctuations prevent singles from becoming homeowners. Abstracting from distinct family types amplifies the attractiveness of housing and, as a result, overstates the effectiveness of housing policies such as lowering property taxes and reducing transaction costs. Importantly, this misspecification is largest for young households who are often directly targeted by policies that aim at increasing homeownership rates.”

CEF.UP – ECO Seminar/Webinar

Tuesday – October 24^th, 2023, at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“Communication through biased intermediators”

Francisco Silva  –  Department of Economics, Deakin University

Abstract:

“We study biased intermediated communication between a sender and a receiver. We prove that the information that can be transmitted from the sender to the receiver is exactly the same as with direct (non-mediated) communication, provided there are (at least) two intermediators who do not communicate with each other. In that sense, the sender is not harmed by not being able to communicate with the receiver directly. This is the case even if the sender does not know the agents’ biases and regardless of the rules of communication (cheap talk, bayesian persuasion, etc.). We discuss the implications of our results to a related information design problem, where a decision maker designs the statistical experiment to be performed by a possibly biased agent. We show that, if the decision maker is able to manipulate the data without causing any statistical loss, she can implement her preferred statistical experiment despite the agent being biased. If, however, manipulating the data has a statistical cost, then strategies that reduce the overall informativeness of the experiment (like reducing the sample) might actually be (second-best) optimal for the decision maker, because they may require less costly manipulation in order to dissuade biased agents from misreporting. We discuss these ideas in the context of medical research.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – October 12^th, 2023 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

Title – The World’s Most Ethical Companies financial performance

Nelson Areal  – Universidade do Minho

“The financial consequences of embracing ethical conduct in business remain a point of contention in the literature. We discuss why ethical companies can have advantages over others by exploring three concurrent dimensions: organizational values, stakeholder management, and good reputation. We evaluate the long-term financial performance of the World’s Most Ethical Companies, a list devised by Ethisphere, using a calendar time portfolio returns. We compare the performance of these companies to a matching sample and, following Mitton (2022), perform a large study to examine the impact of methodological choices when constructing the matching sample on the results. We show that these choices can have a significant impact on results. Overall, the portfolio of these companies overperform the market, but their performance is not different from matched samples.”

CEF.UP – FIN Seminar/Webinar

Thursday – September 28^th, 2023 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

“First and Second Mover Advantages in Strategic Investment under Uncertainty”

Peter Kort  – Tilburg University (joint work with Berend J. Stofferis, and Jacco J.J. Thijssen)

Abstract:

“We study a strategic duopoly investment game in which two firms decide on timing and size of an investment under iso-elastic demand. We find that, in equilibrium, investment can be preemptive or resulting from a war of attrition. This contrasts with existing literature that only finds preemptive investment. We show numerically that the presence of a second mover advantage can delay investment inefficiently long from a social welfare perspective.”