CEF.UP – FIN Seminar

Thursday – June 12^th, 2025 at 1:00 p.m. | Room 305| Online

Credit Access and Market Access: Evidence From a Portuguese Credit Guarantee Scheme

Cláudia Custódio– Imperial College London (England, United Kingdom), CEPR (U.K.) and European Corporate Governance Institute.

Abstract:

“We show that credit access is a key barrier to exporting. We analyze a government scheme that provided credit guarantees to Portuguese SMEs. Regression discontinuity estimates, based on program eligibility criteria, indicate that qualifying firms are more likely to export and to expand their export activity. Credit access has persistent effects, disproportionately impacting not-yet exporters and smaller firms. Our results support international trade models in which credit allows firms to overcome sunk entry costs, leading to hysteresis in trade. We propose two sources of these costs — trust-building and quality upgrading — and show that government guarantees promote access to foreign markets.”